A Comparative Urban–Rural Analysis of Fertility and Female Literacy across Indian States

Abstract

The process of fertility transition in India has been quite heterogeneous among its states. Female education has long been considered one of the most stable predictors of such a trend. In this study, the total fertility rate (TFR) and female literacy rates are compared in terms of 20 Indian states, providing urban and rural estimates separately for each state. Descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, and independent samples t-test were applied to describe the relationship and test the differences between sectors. In the sample, the mean TFR was 1.80 children per woman (SD = 0.31), while the mean female literacy rate was 74.39 per cent (SD = 10.95). The correlation between these variables was statistically significant (r = −0.678, p < 0.01) and quite high (explained variance is 46 per cent). The mean TFR was significantly lower in urban areas than in rural areas. At the same time, urban areas have a significantly higher literacy rate (82.70 against 66.08 per cent; mean difference is 16.62 per cent, t (38) = 7.39, p < 0.001). Intra-sectoral variation is high as well: while rural Bihar exhibits a TFR of 2.8 with female literacy at 58.7% and rural Kerala shows literacy of 94.1% together with a TFR of 1.9%. These findings lend credence to the notion that increasing the levels of female literacy, especially in the rural regions of states with higher fertility, would be conducive to completing the demographic transition of India. Given the correlational nature of the study, the findings indicate association rather than causation.